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Background, Aim and Scope:
The actual land use consequences of crop consumption are not very well reflected in existing life cycle inventories since they typically include data from immediate crop suppliers and do not consider the land ultimately affected in the systems being studied. The aim of this study is to analyse the mechanisms influencing the long-term land use consequences of changes in crop demand and, based on this analysis, propose a methodological framework for identifying these consequences within a global scope.
Materials and Methods:
The study refers to the principles of consequential LCA, which means that the consequences of changes in consumption are studied from a market-based perspective. In this context, the study addresses the feasibility of using economic modelling to identify ultimate land use consequences of crop consumption.
Results. Based on the current market trend for crops and an analysis of basic mechanisms in crop production, concepts for modelling how crop consumption affects the global agricultural area and the intensity of crop production are suggested. It is demonstrated how the assumptions concerning drivers for technological development have a profound influence on identification of the marginal response to crop consumption, and how the geographical location of crop consumption also influences the composition of the marginal production response in terms of cropland expansion and intensification.
Results:
Based on the current market trend for crops and an analysis of basic mechanisms in crop production, concepts for modelling how crop consumption affects the global agricultural area and the intensity of crop production are suggested. It is demonstrated how the assumptions concerning drivers for technological development have a profound influence on identification of the marginal response to crop consumption, and how the geographical location of crop consumption also influences the composition of the marginal production response in terms of cropland expansion and intensification.
Discussion:
Crop prices have been falling at a global scale and are projected to decline further. At the same time, crop yields per hectare are continuously increasing. This indicates that drivers other than crop demand have a strong influence on technological development in crop production.
Conclusions:
Economic modelling supplemented with agricultural statistics geographical information on land use changes can be used to determine land use inventory data. However, this requires the following adjustments of the economic model: Implementation of an endogenous land supply, adequate simulation of current institutional market mechanisms, and adjustment of elasticities to reflect the long-term perspective. Furthermore, the issue of technological development must be solved outside the model and implemented as an exogenous parameter. By this approach, life cycle inventories for crops reflecting the actual land use consequences of consumption can be established.
Recommendations and
Perspectives:
Further work (based on the methodological framework in this study) will address the practical modelling of land use changes induced by crop consumption in different regions with the purpose of including this in LCI.
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