DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2002.07.129 ---
Objectives. This work1 assesses the contribution to climate
change resulting from emissions of the group of halogenated
greenhouse gases. --
Methods. A bottom-up emission model covering 22 technological
sectors in four major regions is described. Emission estimates
for 1996 and projection for 2010 and 2020 are presented. The
costs for deep cuts into projected emission levels are calculated. --
Results. The substances covered by this study have contributed
emissions of 1100800 MT CO2 equivalents2 per year in 1996.
In terms of their relative contribution to emissions of CO2 equivalents,
this corresponds to 3-2% of global emissions of all anthropogenic
greenhouse gases. The wide range of uncertainty is
due to the poorly quantified net global warming potential of
the ozone depleting substances, which have an indirect cooling
effect on climate through the destruction of stratospheric ozone.
For annual emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (which are regulated
under the Kyoto Protocol and for which global warming
potentials are well defined), the relative contribution is projected
to increase to 2% (600 MT CO2 eq.) of global greenhouse gas
emissions by 2010. This trend is expected to continue, emissions
are projected to grow to a contribution of roughly 3%
(870 MT CO2 eq.) in 2020 compared to 0.9% (300 MT CO2
eq.) in 1996. For HFCs, PFCs and SF6, this study identifies global
emission reduction potentials of 260 MT CO2 eq. per year
in 2010 and 640 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2020 at below US$50
per ton. These values correspond to roughly 40% and 75% of
projected emissions in 2010 and 2020, respectively. |
